Blackjack Hand Calculator: Odds & Best Move
Choose your two cards and the dealer’s up-card to compare modeled win probability and average profit for each play. Set the deck count and soft-17 rule to match your game. Need help with totals? See blackjack card values.
US peek game · double on any two cards · double after split · no surrender · approximate split valuation. Model assumptions and validation.
Read the mathematical benchmark report: reference comparisons, measured approximation differences and a downloadable reproduction script.
Turn the answer into practice
Try random hard-total hands in the free trainer. Your saved trainer rules apply; check Settings to match this calculator.
Prefer a scored check first? Try the 20-question strategy quiz, then practice your most-missed category. The quiz uses 6-deck H17 rules.
How to read the results
- Avg profit per $1 is the long-run expected value of each play at your chosen rules — the number basic strategy maximizes. Doubles and splits already account for the extra money you put up.
- Win % is how often the play wins the hand. It is not the deciding number: doubling often matches hit's win rate with twice the bet, and that's exactly why the book prefers it.
- The engine assumes the standard US game: dealer peeks for blackjack, double on any two cards, double after split allowed, split aces get one card. Splits are valued as two one-hand plays (no resplit), the standard approximation.
The hands people look up most
Every number below is this calculator’s own output for a 6-deck, dealer-hits-soft-17 game, in cents per $1 of your original bet. Select a hand below to load its two-card example and see the full breakdown, or change the deck count and soft-17 rule to match your table.
| Your hand | Dealer shows | Correct play | Value per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hit | −53.5¢ | |
| 10 | Hit | −50.4¢ | |
| 2 | Hit | −25.3¢ | |
| 2 | Stand | −28.9¢ | |
| A | Double | +11.9¢ | |
| 3 | Double | +13.0¢ | |
| 9 | Hit | −9.9¢ | |
| 10 | Split | −48.5¢ | |
| 7 | Stand | +39.9¢ | |
| 6 | Double | +46.3¢ | |
| 6 | Stand | +67.7¢ |
Notice how many of these are losing hands — the correct play often just loses the least. 16 vs 10 is the classic: hitting is right, and it still costs about 53½ cents on the dollar. That gap between best play and good outcome is the whole game. Pairs show it most: splitting 8,8 against a 10 still loses 48.5¢, but standing on the 16 loses 53.8¢. The full grid is on the expected value chart, and all 3,300 rows are free to download as open data.
What are the odds of winning your hand?
This is a blackjack probability calculator as much as a strategy tool. For any starting hand it reports the modeled chance of winning next to the expected value, because those answer different questions: win % is how often you take the hand, EV is what the hand is worth. Basic strategy maximizes EV — which is exactly why the highest win % is sometimes the wrong play, since doubling wins a similar share of hands with twice the money on the table. For the game-wide figures (you win about 42.4% of hands), see blackjack odds of winning.
Want to know what your table costs rather than what a hand is worth? That’s a different question — the house edge calculator prices the rules (decks, soft 17, 3:2 vs 6:5, surrender) instead of a single hand.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the answer change with the number of decks?
Fewer decks make card removal matter more — your own cards shift the remaining composition harder. That's why single-deck charts differ in a few cells and why the calculator lets you set 1–8 decks. How many decks matter puts a number on it: a single-deck game is worth about 0.5% less house edge than an 8-deck shoe, all else equal.
What's the difference between H17 and S17 here?
H17 means the dealer hits soft 17, which makes the dealer slightly stronger and changes a few close plays (11 vs A, A-7 vs 2, A-8 vs 6). The soft 17 guide covers all three.
Is this a blackjack probability calculator?
Yes. For any starting hand and dealer up-card it gives the modeled probability of winning alongside the expected value of each play, for 1–8 decks and either soft-17 rule. Win % is how often you take the hand; EV is what it’s worth — and basic strategy maximizes EV, so the highest win % is sometimes not the correct play.
How do you calculate blackjack odds for a hand?
Start from the cards that remain, build the distribution of dealer final totals for the shown up-card under the table’s soft-17 rule, then evaluate every option against it — stand, hit with optimal continuation, double for one card, split. The highest expected value is the correct play. This calculator runs that computation instead of looking the answer up in a chart; the methodology documents the approximations.
Are these numbers exact or simulated?
They are deterministic, not Monte Carlo simulation. They are also a model: future draws use the current shoe proportions without card-by-card depletion, and split valuation does not build a full correlated resplit tree. See the methodology before using close differences as definitive.